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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #129 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Mike Burrows
Mike Burrows · #60
V⁻ —VORP -41V⁺ —
Mike Burrows

Mike Burrows

SP·HOU
Compare
Compare
BF
326
K %
18.4%
BB %
8.6%
xwOBA
.337
PTS
46
PPG
3.54
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj141471.033004.364.3121.8%8.2%13.6%————1188.43
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
70
94.7
FB Spin
43
2247
Extension
2026
13
13
73.3
3
8
0
0
5.77
5.75
18.4%
8.6%
9.8%
.337
.321
73.2%
37.4%
46
3.54
2025231996.024013.943.9624.1%7.7%16.4%.323.29376.6%41.3%1747.57
2024103.310002.708.5013.3%20.0%-6.7%.388.12583.3%44.4%1010.00
37
6.35
Results
xwOBA
29
.337
Barrel %
32
9.4
Hard-Hit %
63
38.3
K %
28
18.4
BB %
39
8.6
Chase %
64
32.0
Whiff %
52
22.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
103
≈ 60th pctl
Stuff+
101
if they swing
Command+
96
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.3%
41 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.002 better than avg · 103 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.026
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.003 better than avg · 31 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 439 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
ChangeupCH
27.0%86.81526+4.9+14.96.4043.1%34.7%28.6%37.5%25.0%0.232
4-Seam FastballFF
24.2%94.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CHFFSLSICU
Usage27%24%20%18%11%
MPH86.894.989.894.480.4
RHP Avg86.995.086.794.380.2
2288
+15.9
+8.5
6.41
5.0%
47.7%
21.6%
32.6%
7.1%
0.526
SliderSL
19.8%89.82528+7.0-3.96.3634.1%54.2%34.7%36.4%25.0%0.289
SinkerSI
17.6%94.42178+11.9+14.96.455.9%60.9%25.0%28.0%25.0%0.355
CurveballCU
11.3%80.42926-11.8-9.26.2136.8%31.7%34.1%42.9%30.8%0.262

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 19″SL · 23″CH · 22″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″SI · 28″SL · 38″CH · 46″CU · 66″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.27′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CHFFSLSICU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CHFFSLSICU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CHFFSLSICU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.