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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #151 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas · #60
V⁻ —VORP -56V⁺ —
Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas

SP / RP·WSN
Compare
Compare
BF
263
K %
14.4%
BB %
6.1%
xwOBA
.350
PTS
44
PPG
3.14
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj131373.036004.974.6515.2%5.7%9.5%————725.56
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
38
93.0
FB Spin
24
2178
Extension
2026
14
6
61.0
1
5
0
0
5.61
5.62
14.4%
6.1%
8.3%
.350
.263
61.9%
46.2%
44
3.14
20253131156.3811004.845.0014.9%5.5%9.4%.352.28072.4%40.8%1805.81
20243333176.71011005.254.1116.9%3.5%13.4%.335.31363.5%42.0%2196.64
20233636208.31013004.624.0615.9%4.5%11.4%.356.30669.2%39.0%2647.33
20223736219.71514003.243.9119.0%4.8%14.2%.311.24475.2%45.9%44912.14
20219944.723004.234.3316.7%5.9%10.8%.323.27267.2%53.5%647.11
20193635199.01015004.124.1918.8%4.2%14.6%.331.30274.6%48.8%3038.42
20183433209.7194002.793.1218.1%3.6%14.5%.288.27875.9%50.8%51515.15
22
6.20
Results
xwOBA
19
.350
Barrel %
17
10.6
Hard-Hit %
28
43.3
K %
5
14.4
BB %
83
6.1
Chase %
15
27.3
Whiff %
1
14.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
111
≈ 86th pctl
Stuff+
97
if they swing
Command+
113
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
92
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
12.8%
37 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.034
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.008 better than avg · 79 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.049
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.020 worse than avg · 18 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 288 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
24.0%92.42220+15.8+7.06.1920.7%68.1%36.2%22.7%23.5%0.398
SinkerSI
21.9%91.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE44°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSISLCUCHST
Usage24%22%16%15%12%11%
MPH92.491.786.675.585.080.8
RHP Avg95.094.386.780.286.983.3
2132
+10.4
+15.7
6.22
15.0%
61.9%
25.4%
45.8%
23.5%
0.254
SliderSL
16.0%86.62229+6.5-3.66.1821.1%37.0%26.1%34.5%0.0%0.543
CurveballCU
15.3%75.52517-15.8-7.86.1725.0%38.6%29.5%14.8%16.7%0.460
ChangeupCH
12.2%85.01424+1.1+11.06.3014.3%34.3%14.3%21.7%0.0%0.417
SweeperST
10.8%80.82371-1.8-9.96.1910.0%38.7%19.4%15.8%7.1%0.440

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 21″SI · 23″SL · 26″CH · 26″ST · 28″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 28″SI · 31″SL · 42″CH · 48″ST · 58″CU · 71″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.59′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSISLCUCHST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSISLCUCHST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSISLCUCHST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.