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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #123 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller · #60
V⁻ —VORP -38V⁺ —
Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller

SP·PIT
Compare
Compare
BF
329
K %
17.6%
BB %
8.2%
xwOBA
.345
PTS
105
PPG
7.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2020108.066004.273.9119.8%7.2%12.6%————1728.58
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
33
92.7
FB Spin
81
2385
Extension
2026
14
14
77.0
5
4
0
0
5.14
3.89
17.6%
8.2%
9.4%
.345
.293
63.9%
40.3%
105
7.50
20253333179.3615004.123.9120.0%6.8%13.2%.327.28969.7%44.3%2617.91
20243131178.01112004.254.0121.5%6.5%15.0%.323.30673.1%39.8%3009.68
20233332195.3139004.243.7025.5%6.7%18.8%.315.30971.8%44.2%39511.97
20223432169.7613003.873.7420.1%8.7%11.4%.320.32573.4%49.9%2397.03
20212525107.0611006.064.2119.5%10.4%9.1%.362.38768.3%41.0%562.24
20205521.711002.916.6518.4%20.7%-2.3%.370.10493.8%42.3%408.00
2019111148.015007.133.0828.5%7.0%21.5%.285.47559.6%40.7%252.27
67
6.64
Results
xwOBA
22
.345
Barrel %
74
6.7
Hard-Hit %
50
39.9
K %
24
17.6
BB %
46
8.2
Chase %
32
29.0
Whiff %
14
18.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
95
≈ 32th pctl
Stuff+
106
if they swing
Command+
93
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
95
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.2%
41 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.047
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.004 worse than avg · 120 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.047
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.018 worse than avg · 31 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 401 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
29.1%93.22355+16.4+8.66.5810.9%46.9%21.9%25.5%11.5%0.290
SweeperST
24.5%82.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE35°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTSICHCUSL
Usage29%25%22%15%6%3%
MPH93.282.192.288.977.888.7
RHP Avg95.083.394.386.980.286.7
2669
+2.0
-17.4
6.56
27.0%
48.1%
28.4%
31.0%
15.8%
0.284
SinkerSI
22.1%92.22331+7.0+15.16.649.1%52.1%23.3%25.7%15.4%0.419
ChangeupCH
14.8%88.91555+2.7+12.26.5628.6%40.8%26.5%31.0%16.7%0.350
CurveballCU
6.4%77.82690-13.4-14.96.4133.3%42.9%38.1%8.3%20.0%0.186
SliderSL
3.0%88.72468+4.9-3.76.4811.1%40.0%20.0%83.3%0.0%0.138

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″SI · 20″ST · 25″SL · 25″CH · 23″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 28″SI · 31″ST · 57″SL · 42″CH · 40″CU · 68″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.30′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTSICHCUSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTSICHCUSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTSICHCUSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.