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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #222 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Mitch Spence
Mitch Spence · #60
V⁻ —VORP -41V⁺ —
Mitch Spence

Mitch Spence

SP / RP·KCR
Compare
Compare
BF
21
K %
14.3%
BB %
23.8%
xwOBA
.372
PTS
-6
PPG
-6.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj19124.011004.754.1916.9%7.2%9.7%————311.63
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

21 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
22
91.6
FB Spin
96
2512
2026
1
0
4.0
0
0
0
0
13.50
8.60
14.3%
23.8%
-9.5%
.372
.250
39.5%
53.8%
-6
-6.00
202534888.736154.974.8417.6%6.9%10.7%.367.31067.2%43.9%1133.32
20243624154.0810014.504.1219.2%6.7%12.5%.319.32073.4%48.4%2145.94
Extension
21
6.15
Results
xwOBA
6
.372
Barrel %
60
7.7
Hard-Hit %
62
38.5
K %
5
14.3
BB %
0
23.8
Chase %
0
19.1
Whiff %
4
16.1