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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #32 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Nathan Eovaldi
Nathan Eovaldi · #32
V⁻ —VORP 40V⁺ —
Nathan Eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi

SP·TEX
Compare
Compare
BF
315
K %
23.5%
BB %
5.4%
xwOBA
.324
PTS
137
PPG
10.54
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919111.077003.713.5023.0%6.2%16.8%————21711.42
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
30
92.3
FB Spin
33
2207
Extension
2026
13
13
80.3
5
7
0
0
4.26
4.58
23.5%
5.4%
18.1%
.324
.274
76.3%
51.2%
137
10.54
20252323134.0113001.752.7826.0%4.2%21.8%.273.24086.0%51.2%41117.87
20243030174.7128003.713.7423.9%6.0%17.9%.309.26974.9%48.9%37712.57
20233433191.7185003.473.5722.8%8.1%14.7%.308.28076.5%51.5%46513.68
20222222119.064003.784.2222.3%4.3%18.0%.323.29374.9%47.9%25211.45
20213937209.71411013.732.7125.5%4.6%20.9%.286.32370.4%42.7%44811.49
20209948.342003.723.7826.1%3.5%22.6%.313.33682.7%51.5%10912.11
2019231267.721045.995.7923.2%11.6%11.6%.337.31573.1%44.8%893.87
20182924139.388023.423.5322.2%4.4%17.8%.284.27570.7%46.8%2869.86
20162623135.399004.724.8018.4%7.6%10.8%.343.28673.8%49.6%1867.15
81
6.75
Results
xwOBA
48
.324
Barrel %
50
8.3
Hard-Hit %
50
40.1
K %
61
23.5
BB %
90
5.4
Chase %
97
36.5
Whiff %
93
28.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
102
≈ 59th pctl
Stuff+
101
if they swing
Command+
101
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
94
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.3%
43 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.003 better than avg · 103 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.045
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.016 worse than avg · 24 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 381 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
Split-FingerFS
38.3%88.61537+0.2+12.56.7730.7%46.2%28.8%40.8%36.1%0.288
CutterFC
21.4%90.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE37°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FSFCCUFFSISL
Usage38%21%19%12%8%1%
MPH88.690.776.694.793.786.3
RHP Avg86.789.880.295.094.386.7
2221
+10.6
-2.2
6.81
40.6%
40.5%
28.4%
25.0%
19.0%
0.357
CurveballCU
18.6%76.61976-9.6-10.26.6646.9%34.4%34.4%38.1%19.2%0.200
4-Seam FastballFF
11.9%94.72179+13.7+12.06.8317.6%63.4%39.0%26.7%40.0%0.391
SinkerSI
8.4%93.72100+10.5+16.06.8011.8%58.6%20.7%33.3%0.0%0.353
SliderSL
1.4%86.32042+3.9-4.46.780.0%60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.483

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFC · 20″SI · 18″FF · 19″SL · 24″CU · 23″FS · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FC · 36″SI · 30″FF · 28″SL · 45″CU · 71″FS · 42″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.25′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FSFCCUFFSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FSFCCUFFSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FSFCCUFFSISL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.