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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

OF·TOR
Compare
Compare
PA
440
H
99
HR
12
AVG
.254
xwOBA
.317
PPG
1.97
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202633109.313.364.404.091.31913.8%3.7%10.1%10571.73—
2025148440.254
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

440 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
26
.317
xBA
63
.262
.323
.405
.151
.317
13.6%
8.6%
5.0%
12
2
292
1.97
—
20242491.303.384.447.144.3309.9%11.0%-1.1%12712.96—
20232231.192.300.308.116.27829.0%12.9%16.1%00140.64—
xSLG
20
.394
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
8
86.5
Median EV
19
90.7
90th % EV
12
102.3
Barrel %
8
4.7
Hard-Hit %
18
37.0
Sweet-Spot %
12
32.2
Bat Speed
Avg
7
66.3
Median
5
67.3
90th %
9
73.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
26
31.5
Whiff %
93
12.3
K %
91
13.6
BB %
47
8.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
94
≈ 28th pctl
Chase cost
-32.5r
317 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.6r
261 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
49.0%
1,685 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.73
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1+17%6+22%9+0%8+0%8+0%62+50%6+37%19+0%25-2%45+0%25+8%12+0%6+57%14-14%37-39%76-29%63-21%63+26%31+0%12+64%22-6%52-24%54-29%69-14%49+50%18+0%7+83%12+38%21+23%22+30%33+67%21+41%1722+38%8+50%6+43%743CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000