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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #92 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Nathan Lukes
Nathan Lukes · #60
V⁻ -1VORP 9V⁺ 26
Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

OF·TOR
Compare
Compare
PA
121
H
34
HR
1
AVG
.309
xwOBA
.312
PPG
1.63
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj48209.262.322.383.122.31715.7%7.7%8.0%421042.16—
202635121.309
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

121 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
28
.312
xBA
88
.288
.361
.391
.082
.312
15.7%
4.1%
11.6%
1
0
57
1.63
—
2025148440.254.323.405.151.31713.6%8.6%5.0%1222921.97—
20242491.303.384.447.144.3309.9%11.0%-1.1%12712.96—
20232231.192.300.308.116.27829.0%12.9%16.1%00140.64—
xSLG
16
.363
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
13
86.0
Median EV
1
85.0
90th % EV
14
101.6
Barrel %
2
1.1
Hard-Hit %
13
32.3
Sweet-Spot %
37
34.4
Bat Speed
Avg
6
66.0
Median
5
66.4
90th %
8
72.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
7
38.2
Whiff %
87
14.6
K %
79
15.7
BB %
4
4.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
72
≈ 1th pctl
Chase cost
-5.4r
40 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.5r
28 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
54.0%
187 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.68
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
13221+33%615+0%7243-42%12-30%10-50%8313+0%7-20%10-8%12-27%15413+63%8+30%10+22%9+75%811313CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 187