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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #28 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe · #28
V⁻ -28VORP -9V⁺ 1
Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

1B·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
168
H
37
HR
9
AVG
.250
xwOBA
.379
PPG
1.90
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj55236.251.339.419.168.33923.8%11.4%12.4%801162.11—
202650168.250
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

168 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
86
.379
xBA
62
.264
.339
.493
.243
.379
23.2%
11.9%
11.3%
9
0
95
1.90
—
2025157610.227.309.381.154.30526.1%10.2%15.9%1812581.64—
2024140568.264.362.399.135.33422.0%12.5%9.5%1622781.99—
2023184724.262.362.414.152.34122.8%12.8%10.0%1713902.12—
2022167646.301.358.492.191.34822.8%7.4%15.4%2723612.16—
2021165644.263.357.413.150.32625.2%12.4%12.8%1883231.96—
20202276.224.316.433.209.31136.8%11.8%25.0%41301.36—
201951169.263.329.454.191.33129.6%7.7%21.9%70941.84—
xSLG
81
.492
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
42
89.3
Median EV
88
96.3
90th % EV
72
106.6
Barrel %
77
13.0
Hard-Hit %
50
42.6
Sweet-Spot %
93
42.6
Bat Speed
Avg
73
72.6
Median
73
74.0
90th %
69
78.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
72
25.4
Whiff %
74
17.4
K %
34
23.2
BB %
72
11.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
114
≈ 91th pctl
Chase cost
-1.9r
20 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.9r
21 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.2%
145 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.96
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
211533+17%65-45%1144223+33%9-25%8-33%9-36%14+0%6124+29%7+44%921312321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 145