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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

1B·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
724
H
163
HR
17
AVG
.262
xwOBA
.341
PPG
2.12
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202648160.250.325.500.250.37224.4%10.0%14.4%90921.92—
2025157610.227
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
55
.341
xBA
56
.259
xSLG
.309
.381
.154
.305
26.1%
10.2%
15.9%
18
1
258
1.64
—
2024140568.264.362.399.135.33422.0%12.5%9.5%1622781.99—
2023184724.262.362.414.152.34122.8%12.8%10.0%1713902.12—
2022167646.301.358.492.191.34822.8%7.4%15.4%2723612.16—
2021165644.263.357.413.150.32625.2%12.4%12.8%1883231.96—
20202276.224.316.433.209.31136.8%11.8%25.0%41301.36—
201951169.263.329.454.191.33129.6%7.7%21.9%70941.84—
27
.408
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
54
89.8
Median EV
40
91.7
90th % EV
61
106.1
Barrel %
24
6.5
Hard-Hit %
46
41.6
Sweet-Spot %
67
37.5
Bat Speed
Avg
79
72.6
Median
76
73.7
90th %
67
77.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
90
20.8
Whiff %
73
18.2
K %
32
22.8
BB %
89
12.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
106
≈ 73th pctl
Chase cost
-52.6r
528 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-25.8r
461 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.2%
3,395 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.31
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
42+0%115+0%725+10%10-7%14-5%20+10%20+5%19+0%103+33%27-10%41-36%56-37%54-22%46+32%37+15%13+19%21-2%48-21%66-27%62-6%62+66%35+23%13+25%12+31%29+7%29+12%34+15%33+27%22+13%853+0%143+8%1231CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000