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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

1B·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
568
H
129
HR
16
AVG
.264
xwOBA
.334
PPG
1.99
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202650168.250.339.493.243.37923.2%11.9%11.3%90951.90—
2025157610.227
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
49
.334
xBA
50
.250
xSLG
.309
.381
.154
.305
26.1%
10.2%
15.9%
18
1
258
1.64
—
2024140568.264.362.399.135.33422.0%12.5%9.5%1622781.99—
2023184724.262.362.414.152.34122.8%12.8%10.0%1713902.12—
2022167646.301.358.492.191.34822.8%7.4%15.4%2723612.16—
2021165644.263.357.413.150.32625.2%12.4%12.8%1883231.96—
20202276.224.316.433.209.31136.8%11.8%25.0%41301.36—
201951169.263.329.454.191.33129.6%7.7%21.9%70941.84—
16
.388
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
39
88.9
Median EV
30
91.3
90th % EV
63
105.8
Barrel %
18
5.8
Hard-Hit %
35
40.0
Sweet-Spot %
43
35.3
Bat Speed
Avg
69
71.7
Median
71
72.9
90th %
60
77.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
81
23.4
Whiff %
72
18.8
K %
42
22.0
BB %
96
12.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 64th pctl
Chase cost
-37.6r
378 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-19.2r
340 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.7%
2,356 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.41
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
44+0%7+13%8+10%10+0%71+18%11+14%21+0%33-7%28+19%32+36%14+0%7+30%20+0%38-47%55-39%72-20%40+48%23+25%12+19%26-8%36-33%57-25%64-2%47+54%28+33%18+11%18+35%20+38%29+20%25+30%30+55%22+0%74+14%755+17%651CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000