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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

1B·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
610
H
123
HR
18
AVG
.227
xwOBA
.305
PPG
1.64
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202648160.250.325.500.250.37224.4%10.0%14.4%90921.92—
2025157610.227
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
12
.305
xBA
11
.231
xSLG
.309
.381
.154
.305
26.1%
10.2%
15.9%
18
1
258
1.64
—
2024140568.264.362.399.135.33422.0%12.5%9.5%1622781.99—
2023184724.262.362.414.152.34122.8%12.8%10.0%1713902.12—
2022167646.301.358.492.191.34822.8%7.4%15.4%2723612.16—
2021165644.263.357.413.150.32625.2%12.4%12.8%1883231.96—
20202276.224.316.433.209.31136.8%11.8%25.0%41301.36—
201951169.263.329.454.191.33129.6%7.7%21.9%70941.84—
12
.380
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
31
89.0
Median EV
36
92.5
90th % EV
40
105.1
Barrel %
23
7.0
Hard-Hit %
30
41.5
Sweet-Spot %
28
34.7
Bat Speed
Avg
55
71.0
Median
55
72.2
90th %
48
76.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
71
24.0
Whiff %
58
21.6
K %
18
26.1
BB %
70
10.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
99
≈ 46th pctl
Chase cost
-45.2r
413 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-21.8r
410 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.8%
2,610 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.57
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3+0%6+0%8+0%7+0%73+10%10+33%27+8%26-4%25+26%23+0%18+0%8+42%19-2%46-42%59-31%58-4%46+59%39+11%9+34%29-3%34-33%55-23%56-16%63+57%35+18%22+30%10-5%21+19%37+32%31+36%25+29%1453+0%6+10%10+0%7+14%71CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000