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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nick Castellanos

Nick Castellanos

OF·SDP
Compare
Compare
PA
673
H
170
HR
29
AVG
.271
xwOBA
.323
PPG
2.24
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202639122.191.225.339.148.28827.9%4.1%23.8%42411.05—
2025153590.250
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
28
.323
xBA
44
.254
xSLG
.296
.400
.150
.302
22.5%
5.4%
17.1%
17
4
278
1.82
—
2024170662.253.311.429.176.33821.0%6.2%14.8%2363562.09—
2023177673.271.313.475.204.32327.5%5.3%22.2%29123962.24—
2022162559.263.305.389.126.30723.3%5.2%18.1%1372661.64—
2021146585.309.366.576.267.37920.7%7.0%13.7%3434362.99—
202064242.225.299.486.261.37628.5%7.9%20.6%1401292.02—
2019156665.289.338.524.235.36421.5%6.2%15.3%2724022.58—
2018162678.298.356.500.202.37922.3%7.2%15.1%2323952.44—
2017166666.272.322.489.217.37521.3%6.2%15.1%2644152.50—
54
.447
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
38
88.9
Median EV
53
92.5
90th % EV
47
105.0
Barrel %
61
10.3
Hard-Hit %
59
43.2
Sweet-Spot %
56
36.9
Bat Speed
Avg
61
71.0
Median
56
71.9
90th %
63
77.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
3
40.9
Whiff %
0
33.6
K %
12
27.5
BB %
8
5.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
87
≈ 10th pctl
Chase cost
-60.4r
638 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-20.8r
287 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
56.2%
2,696 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.01
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
+0%644+63%8+33%9+22%92+50%16+33%27+23%30+27%15+63%85+45%29+26%43-20%50-14%50-26%42+61%28+33%9+30%27+17%59-31%64-21%57-10%39+48%23+27%11+38%32+54%39+35%37+13%30-5%20+50%82+0%11+33%18+22%9+29%723CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000