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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nick Castellanos

Nick Castellanos

OF·SDP
Compare
Compare
PA
590
H
137
HR
17
AVG
.250
xwOBA
.302
PPG
1.82
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202639122.191.225.339.148.28827.9%4.1%23.8%42411.05—
2025153590.250
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
7
.302
xBA
34
.243
xSLG
.296
.400
.150
.302
22.5%
5.4%
17.1%
17
4
278
1.82
—
2024170662.253.311.429.176.33821.0%6.2%14.8%2363562.09—
2023177673.271.313.475.204.32327.5%5.3%22.2%29123962.24—
2022162559.263.305.389.126.30723.3%5.2%18.1%1372661.64—
2021146585.309.366.576.267.37920.7%7.0%13.7%3434362.99—
202064242.225.299.486.261.37628.5%7.9%20.6%1401292.02—
2019156665.289.338.524.235.36421.5%6.2%15.3%2724022.58—
2018162678.298.356.500.202.37922.3%7.2%15.1%2323952.44—
2017166666.272.322.489.217.37521.3%6.2%15.1%2644152.50—
28
.408
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
18
87.8
Median EV
18
90.6
90th % EV
27
104.1
Barrel %
28
7.6
Hard-Hit %
13
34.5
Sweet-Spot %
94
41.2
Bat Speed
Avg
22
68.7
Median
20
70.0
90th %
34
75.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
4
41.0
Whiff %
20
27.0
K %
40
22.5
BB %
11
5.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
73
≈ 1th pctl
Chase cost
-57.3r
551 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-20.0r
207 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
58.6%
2,212 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.50
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
451+44%9+43%742+29%7+6%17+33%18+40%30+26%27+40%10+13%8+50%24+22%40-20%51-20%45-12%43+41%27+92%13+48%25+33%36-15%65-13%55-15%46+43%21+43%7+39%28+47%30+43%49+30%37+52%23+64%11+33%12+7%14+24%17+46%135431CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000