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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #134 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Nick Castellanos
Nick Castellanos · #60
V⁻ -17VORP -7V⁺ 10
Nick Castellanos

Nick Castellanos

OF·SDP
Compare
Compare
PA
122
H
22
HR
4
AVG
.191
xwOBA
.288
PPG
1.05
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj39168.244.293.396.152.30623.5%6.0%17.4%51731.86—
202639122.191
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

122 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
7
.288
xBA
31
.244
.225
.339
.148
.288
27.9%
4.1%
23.8%
4
2
41
1.05
—
2025153590.250.296.400.150.30222.5%5.4%17.1%1742781.82—
2024170662.253.311.429.176.33821.0%6.2%14.8%2363562.09—
2023177673.271.313.475.204.32327.5%5.3%22.2%29123962.24—
2022162559.263.305.389.126.30723.3%5.2%18.1%1372661.64—
2021146585.309.366.576.267.37920.7%7.0%13.7%3434362.99—
202064242.225.299.486.261.37628.5%7.9%20.6%1401292.02—
2019156665.289.338.524.235.36421.5%6.2%15.3%2724022.58—
2018162678.298.356.500.202.37922.3%7.2%15.1%2323952.44—
2017166666.272.322.489.217.37521.3%6.2%15.1%2644152.50—
xSLG
37
.400
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
25
87.7
Median EV
52
92.7
90th % EV
11
101.0
Barrel %
44
8.4
Hard-Hit %
28
37.3
Sweet-Spot %
92
42.2
Bat Speed
Avg
17
68.0
Median
33
70.5
90th %
31
75.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
6
40.2
Whiff %
7
32.0
K %
14
27.9
BB %
5
4.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
85
≈ 7th pctl
Chase cost
-5.0r
54 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.9r
17 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
60.8%
186 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.15
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1241115+56%9252133-11%9-15%13345+22%9-21%14-33%12-11%9313+63%8+43%14+33%92113122CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 186