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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nick Fortes

Nick Fortes

C·TBR
Compare
Compare
PA
325
H
60
HR
6
AVG
.203
xwOBA
.264
PPG
1.13
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202650160.242.285.309.067.26913.1%2.5%10.6%10631.26—
202588244.227
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

325 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.264
xBA
0
.206
.295
.345
.118
.270
19.3%
5.7%
13.6%
5
1
94
1.07
—
2024102336.227.262.317.090.24612.2%3.3%8.9%401291.26—
2023100325.203.263.297.094.26418.2%5.2%13.0%641131.13—
202270241.229.303.390.161.32518.7%7.5%11.2%951331.90—
20211734.290.353.677.387.36623.5%8.8%14.7%41311.82—
xSLG
1
.325
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
12
87.4
Median EV
16
90.2
90th % EV
14
102.5
Barrel %
7
3.8
Hard-Hit %
13
35.0
Sweet-Spot %
0
27.5
Bat Speed
Avg
28
69.0
Median
23
69.9
90th %
21
74.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
68
25.4
Whiff %
90
15.2
K %
64
18.2
BB %
6
5.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
107
≈ 76th pctl
Chase cost
-15.6r
161 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-10.6r
176 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.1%
1,147 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.28
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
125445-14%7+0%8+4%23+33%18+27%11+36%145+7%14-28%40-33%73-16%45-9%33+59%221+29%35-23%62-30%94-23%65-4%48+50%12+50%6+11%27+13%61+20%44+9%34+20%20+25%82+0%13-8%12+11%18+9%11+0%62CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000