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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B·ATH
Compare
Compare
PA
490
H
122
HR
36
AVG
.290
xwOBA
.376
PPG
3.03
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202666298.281.433.519.238.41129.2%20.5%8.7%1472053.11—
2025118490.290
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

490 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
91
.376
xBA
36
.245
.385
.618
.328
.376
30.8%
12.9%
17.9%
36
2
357
3.03
—
xSLG
91
.534
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
90
92.7
Median EV
88
95.4
90th % EV
88
108.5
Barrel %
96
18.4
Hard-Hit %
89
51.1
Sweet-Spot %
89
40.1
Bat Speed
Avg
98
75.3
Median
97
76.9
90th %
98
81.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
80
22.4
Whiff %
0
33.0
K %
3
30.8
BB %
87
12.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 64th pctl
Chase cost
-26.6r
278 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-20.1r
304 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.1%
1,954 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.39
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+14%7+13%8+17%124+0%1053+31%16+20%20+18%38+10%39+9%22+0%73+28%25-2%44-34%56-35%60-29%41+28%25+13%16+32%19-16%43-40%50-21%62-12%40+31%39+11%19+13%15+35%17-5%21+15%26+32%28+43%21+0%942+0%6+33%9+22%952CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000