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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #91 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Nick Lodolo
Nick Lodolo · #60
V⁻ —VORP -15V⁺ —
Nick Lodolo

Nick Lodolo

SP·CIN
Compare
Compare
BF
147
K %
17.0%
BB %
9.5%
xwOBA
.390
PTS
40
PPG
6.67
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181894.056004.033.7723.8%6.8%17.0%————1739.59
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

147 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
57
94.1
FB Spin
63
2313
2026
6
6
32.7
2
1
0
0
5.51
6.50
17.0%
9.5%
7.5%
.390
.280
78.9%
41.6%
40
6.67
20253129164.3108003.233.7624.3%4.8%19.5%.292.27281.4%44.6%38512.42
20242121115.396004.763.8824.6%7.5%17.1%.301.29068.2%44.9%22310.62
20239943.031005.235.4028.3%6.0%22.3%.338.39184.7%47.1%778.56
20222221112.757013.593.7629.6%8.8%20.8%.307.32079.7%45.6%23910.86
Extension
22
6.17
Results
xwOBA
1
.390
Barrel %
8
11.9
Hard-Hit %
61
38.6
K %
19
17.0
BB %
28
9.5
Chase %
86
33.7
Whiff %
33
20.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
66
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
102
if they swing
Command+
53
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
98
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.0%
1 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
—
RV per pitch · league 0.042
— on avg · 0 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.182
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.153 worse than avg · 1 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 10 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.