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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #106 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez · #60
V⁻ —VORP -24V⁺ —
Nick Martinez

Nick Martinez

SP / RP·TBR
Compare
Compare
BF
291
K %
14.4%
BB %
4.5%
xwOBA
.333
PTS
165
PPG
12.69
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2318113.087004.294.1317.6%6.2%11.3%————1767.63
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
20
91.5
FB Spin
62
2304
Extension
2026
13
13
77.7
6
2
0
0
2.43
3.55
14.4%
4.5%
9.9%
.333
.281
84.9%
38.9%
165
12.69
20254126166.01114054.614.3116.9%6.1%10.8%.313.27867.1%39.3%2345.71
20244317146.0107073.213.2620.4%3.2%17.2%.284.27571.5%37.7%3357.79
20236410115.0741153.443.7922.9%8.7%14.2%.310.29678.3%54.0%2744.28
20225713129.3658113.204.3121.2%9.2%12.0%.309.25682.8%48.1%3315.81
20172520120.739005.375.4414.0%5.8%8.2%.350.27868.2%42.8%1024.08
201614645.725005.726.528.9%10.6%-1.7%.369.29973.9%49.6%80.57
20152723136.387004.034.9713.8%8.2%5.6%.360.29374.3%44.1%1786.59
10
5.94
Results
xwOBA
35
.333
Barrel %
69
6.8
Hard-Hit %
92
32.5
K %
5
14.4
BB %
98
4.5
Chase %
63
31.9
Whiff %
6
16.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
111
≈ 86th pctl
Stuff+
86
if they swing
Command+
119
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
91
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.7%
50 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 119 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.017
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.013 better than avg · 27 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 426 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
ChangeupCH
29.7%78.71843+4.7+12.56.0331.1%29.4%22.5%33.3%16.3%0.152
SinkerSI
27.9%92.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE57°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CHSIFCFFCUSL
Usage30%28%19%12%7%5%
MPH78.792.989.593.080.086.6
RHP Avg86.994.389.895.080.286.7
2303
+12.4
+14.7
5.99
2.3%
64.6%
28.1%
23.5%
17.9%
0.291
CutterFC
18.6%89.52352+10.6-1.75.9520.0%67.2%25.0%14.3%11.1%0.481
4-Seam FastballFF
11.9%93.02254+16.3+5.35.9815.0%53.7%24.4%31.6%8.3%0.477
CurveballCU
7.3%80.02547-14.2-0.25.8622.2%44.0%28.0%14.3%0.0%0.711
SliderSL
4.7%86.62415+3.7-2.45.980.0%62.5%12.5%33.3%0.0%0.428

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 19″FC · 22″SL · 24″CH · 23″CU · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 32″SI · 32″FC · 39″SL · 46″CH · 65″CU · 63″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.42′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CHSIFCFFCUSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CHSIFCFFCUSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CHSIFCFFCUSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.