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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Nick Pivetta

Nick Pivetta

SP·SDP
Compare
Compare
BF
66
K %
36.4%
BB %
9.1%
xwOBA
.212
PTS
33
PPG
8.25
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj5530.022003.823.6826.7%7.7%19.0%————6312.58
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

66 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
50
93.6
FB Spin
74
2354
2026
4
4
16.0
1
2
0
0
4.50
1.23
36.4%
9.1%
27.3%
.212
.333
55.6%
33.3%
33
8.25
20253333191.7146002.823.4626.3%6.9%19.4%.311.23079.7%34.1%51415.58
20242827151.7612004.153.9528.9%6.0%22.9%.293.28075.2%33.4%29610.57
20233917148.7109124.003.8431.1%8.5%22.6%.312.27874.1%36.6%3448.82
20223636192.31113004.544.5922.6%9.4%13.2%.337.30276.5%38.5%3018.36
20213532172.7109104.594.2626.4%9.8%16.6%.303.28572.8%38.9%3199.11
20205215.720016.895.5923.9%8.5%15.4%.362.32667.0%27.7%285.60
2019311498.747115.385.2721.1%9.3%11.8%.350.30769.1%44.6%1254.03
20183534169.0714004.633.6427.1%7.3%19.8%.294.32369.4%49.7%2767.89
20172626133.0810006.024.8124.0%9.8%14.2%.337.33267.1%45.2%1505.77
Extension
87
6.84
Results
xwOBA
100
.212
Barrel %
99
2.8
Hard-Hit %
97
30.6
K %
99
36.4
BB %
32
9.1
Chase %
100
39.4
Whiff %
65
23.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
113
≈ 90th pctl
Stuff+
122
if they swing
Command+
94
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
126
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.1%
18 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.041
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.001 better than avg · 125 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.015
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.014 better than avg · 21 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 354 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
57.6%94.12339+20.4+2.26.9120.0%44.2%22.7%36.3%21.3%0.232
CurveballCU
17.7%79.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE58°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCUSTFCSISL
Usage58%18%12%10%1%1%
MPH94.179.281.991.093.486.9
RHP Avg95.080.283.389.894.386.7
2773
-16.4
-7.1
6.74
35.3%
48.0%
42.0%
26.9%
23.1%
0.254
SweeperST
12.4%81.92442+4.5-12.56.7340.9%40.0%37.1%66.7%30.0%0.094
CutterFC
10.2%91.02455+12.7-5.76.756.3%51.7%20.7%42.9%16.7%0.319
SinkerSI
1.4%93.42234+16.6+12.56.830.0%75.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.043
SliderSL
0.7%86.92300+2.0-4.46.85100.0%0.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%0.000

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 18″FC · 21″ST · 24″CU · 26″SL · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″SI · 31″FC · 36″ST · 59″CU · 66″SL · 45″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.82′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCUSTFCSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCUSTFCSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCUSTFCSISL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.