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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

-500+50+100+150+200
Nick Senzel

Nick Senzel

3B / OF·FA
Compare
Compare
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj01.097.142.149.051.13611.7%4.5%7.2%0001.32—
202478267.195.283.331.136.30522.8%10.5%12.3%71971.24—
2023100331.235.298.397
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

No MLB Statcast hitting rows for 2026.

.162
.297
22.4%
7.9%
14.5%
13
6
168
1.68
—
2022119421.230.296.305.075.31218.1%7.1%11.0%5101891.59—
202139124.252.325.315.063.35812.9%9.7%3.2%12611.56—
20202778.186.250.357.171.30019.2%7.7%11.5%22331.22—
2019102417.254.314.423.169.31024.2%7.2%17.0%12142052.01—
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
112
≈ 88th pctl
Chase cost
-0.3r
4 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.0r
1 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.0%
16 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.04
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1211131211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 16