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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B·CHC
Compare
Compare
PA
651
H
178
HR
7
AVG
.296
xwOBA
.323
PPG
2.61
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202666296.247.334.347.100.3366.8%10.1%-3.3%4121762.67—
2025167651.296
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
34
.323
xBA
90
.282
xSLG
.346
.393
.097
.323
7.5%
6.0%
1.5%
7
30
436
2.61
—
2024154641.273.337.373.100.31910.3%6.9%3.4%7313812.47—
2023153688.283.349.383.100.31412.1%7.1%5.0%9444312.82—
2022143517.281.328.410.129.31211.0%5.4%5.6%10213292.30—
202152170.302.385.369.067.33414.7%10.0%4.7%061062.04—
202046126.222.317.259.037.30019.0%9.5%9.5%03541.17—
20192382.282.309.436.154.32013.4%3.7%9.7%30572.48—
12
.380
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
9
86.7
Median EV
10
89.8
90th % EV
4
100.7
Barrel %
3
2.3
Hard-Hit %
6
30.3
Sweet-Spot %
60
36.8
Bat Speed
Avg
8
66.9
Median
8
68.1
90th %
4
72.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
18
32.4
Whiff %
97
10.2
K %
98
7.5
BB %
17
6.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
100
≈ 50th pctl
Chase cost
-41.7r
421 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-16.8r
371 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.6%
2,315 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.53
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2124+0%8+14%75+47%17+17%18+19%37+35%26+44%164+56%16-3%34-21%63-21%86-35%52+34%32+17%6+48%23-11%45-35%69-42%65-32%38+20%255+29%28+36%36+18%49+3%39+40%15+22%91+0%11+11%9+33%6+25%834CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000