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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #5 of 67

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner · #5
V⁻ 18VORP 52V⁺ 79
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B / SS·CHC
Compare
Compare
PA
456
H
100
HR
4
AVG
.244
xwOBA
.321
PPG
2.35
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj100432.277.337.377.101.3229.2%7.2%2.0%5172522.52—
2026103456.244
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
38
.321
xBA
92
.289
xSLG
.313
.334
.090
.321
8.3%
7.9%
0.4%
4
14
242
2.35
—
2025167651.296.346.393.097.3237.5%6.0%1.5%7304362.61—
2024154641.273.337.373.100.31910.3%6.9%3.4%7313812.47—
2023153688.283.349.383.100.31412.1%7.1%5.0%9444312.82—
2022143517.281.328.410.129.31211.0%5.4%5.6%10213292.30—
202152170.302.385.369.067.33414.7%10.0%4.7%061062.04—
202046126.222.317.259.037.30019.0%9.5%9.5%03541.17—
20192382.282.309.436.154.32013.4%3.7%9.7%30572.48—
16
.364
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
13
86.1
Median EV
6
86.9
90th % EV
10
100.7
Barrel %
2
0.8
Hard-Hit %
5
28.2
Sweet-Spot %
72
38.3
Bat Speed
Avg
12
67.1
Median
8
67.4
90th %
4
71.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
43
31.0
Whiff %
96
10.8
K %
98
8.3
BB %
33
7.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
105
≈ 70th pctl
Chase cost
-5.7r
59 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.0r
68 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.0%
377 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.31
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
23214+47%17-33%9+42%12+25%8423+0%11-48%25-40%25-18%11+40%152+63%8-43%23-38%21-34%29-12%16+29%71+0%7+27%22+30%10+17%12+13%832+33%63323CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 377