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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado

3B·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
614
H
149
HR
26
AVG
.265
xwOBA
.324
PPG
2.51
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202661226.256.339.437.181.32319.9%8.8%11.1%811302.13—
2025109437.236
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
32
.324
xBA
60
.261
xSLG
.291
.376
.140
.293
11.2%
6.4%
4.8%
12
3
247
2.27
—
2024157635.272.329.394.122.30114.5%6.9%7.6%1623302.10—
2023148614.265.318.457.192.32416.4%6.7%9.7%2633712.51—
2022159621.292.360.532.240.34611.6%8.4%3.2%3054783.01—
2021166653.255.316.494.239.31914.7%7.7%7.0%3424532.73—
202050201.253.310.434.181.29410.0%7.5%2.5%801332.66—
2019161663.314.383.582.268.35014.0%9.4%4.6%4135743.57—
2018166673.297.377.561.264.36218.1%10.8%7.3%3825113.08—
2017167679.309.376.586.277.37215.6%9.1%6.5%3735743.44—
47
.437
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
35
88.8
Median EV
22
91.0
90th % EV
31
104.2
Barrel %
34
7.3
Hard-Hit %
23
38.1
Sweet-Spot %
42
35.3
Bat Speed
Avg
30
69.2
Median
35
70.9
90th %
35
75.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
18
34.1
Whiff %
68
18.9
K %
76
16.4
BB %
27
6.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
85
≈ 7th pctl
Chase cost
-53.3r
467 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-17.6r
306 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.5%
2,295 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.09
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
2+43%7+9%11+33%9+9%1122+40%10+45%20+22%32+36%39+38%21+25%8+0%7+37%19+22%27-29%49-23%52-17%41+16%254+57%35+0%53-30%64-28%65-33%39+0%13+11%9+32%22+47%55+39%31+32%37+25%20+40%101+25%8+18%17+18%17+22%923CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000