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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado

3B·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
635
H
157
HR
16
AVG
.272
xwOBA
.301
PPG
2.10
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202664244.248.332.416.168.31220.5%8.6%11.9%811282.00—
2025109437.236
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
8
.301
xBA
67
.260
xSLG
.291
.376
.140
.293
11.2%
6.4%
4.8%
12
3
247
2.27
—
2024157635.272.329.394.122.30114.5%6.9%7.6%1623302.10—
2023148614.265.318.457.192.32416.4%6.7%9.7%2633712.51—
2022159621.292.360.532.240.34611.6%8.4%3.2%3054783.01—
2021166653.255.316.494.239.31914.7%7.7%7.0%3424532.73—
202050201.253.310.434.181.29410.0%7.5%2.5%801332.66—
2019161663.314.383.582.268.35014.0%9.4%4.6%4135743.57—
2018166673.297.377.561.264.36218.1%10.8%7.3%3825113.08—
2017167679.309.376.586.277.37215.6%9.1%6.5%3735743.44—
10
.372
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
10
86.3
Median EV
8
89.5
90th % EV
10
101.5
Barrel %
6
3.2
Hard-Hit %
9
31.6
Sweet-Spot %
67
36.9
Bat Speed
Avg
25
68.7
Median
28
70.5
90th %
29
75.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
33
30.0
Whiff %
84
15.6
K %
90
14.5
BB %
23
6.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
93
≈ 26th pctl
Chase cost
-48.2r
437 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-19.8r
388 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.8%
2,485 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.74
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
123+13%8511+58%12+30%20+18%17+26%34+29%17+40%103+39%18-12%24-32%53-33%63-12%40+35%23+25%8+59%17+22%46-31%80-27%82-29%52+46%24+0%8+14%21+36%36+11%47+10%31+30%23+50%125+0%10+13%15+8%13+20%10+0%104CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000