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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado

3B·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
437
H
95
HR
12
AVG
.236
xwOBA
.293
PPG
2.27
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202661226.256.339.437.181.32319.9%8.8%11.1%811302.13—
2025109437.236
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

437 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
4
.293
xBA
42
.250
.291
.376
.140
.293
11.2%
6.4%
4.8%
12
3
247
2.27
—
2024157635.272.329.394.122.30114.5%6.9%7.6%1623302.10—
2023148614.265.318.457.192.32416.4%6.7%9.7%2633712.51—
2022159621.292.360.532.240.34611.6%8.4%3.2%3054783.01—
2021166653.255.316.494.239.31914.7%7.7%7.0%3424532.73—
202050201.253.310.434.181.29410.0%7.5%2.5%801332.66—
2019161663.314.383.582.268.35014.0%9.4%4.6%4135743.57—
2018166673.297.377.561.264.36218.1%10.8%7.3%3825113.08—
2017167679.309.376.586.277.37215.6%9.1%6.5%3735743.44—
xSLG
11
.373
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
10
86.8
Median EV
7
89.4
90th % EV
8
101.6
Barrel %
7
3.9
Hard-Hit %
12
32.6
Sweet-Spot %
27
34.6
Bat Speed
Avg
34
69.4
Median
38
71.2
90th %
32
75.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
15
33.9
Whiff %
85
16.6
K %
95
11.2
BB %
24
6.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
94
≈ 26th pctl
Chase cost
-32.4r
320 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-11.9r
238 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.9%
1,606 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.76
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
455523+44%9-4%28+25%20+28%18+7%143+57%14+21%33-33%52-28%53-26%38+58%26+22%9+41%22+25%53-29%90-32%56-33%51+42%335+29%21+46%50+13%63+20%44+29%28+20%101+21%14+15%13+23%13+29%7+38%831CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000