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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #13 of 41

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado · #13
V⁻ -39VORP 20V⁺ 26
Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado

3B·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
226
H
51
HR
8
AVG
.256
xwOBA
.323
PPG
2.13
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj89386.253.313.402.149.31914.9%7.5%7.5%1122072.33—
202661226.256
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
36
.323
xBA
49
.256
xSLG
.339
.437
.181
.323
19.9%
8.8%
11.1%
8
1
130
2.13
—
2025109437.236.291.376.140.29311.2%6.4%4.8%1232472.27—
2024157635.272.329.394.122.30114.5%6.9%7.6%1623302.10—
2023148614.265.318.457.192.32416.4%6.7%9.7%2633712.51—
2022159621.292.360.532.240.34611.6%8.4%3.2%3054783.01—
2021166653.255.316.494.239.31914.7%7.7%7.0%3424532.73—
202050201.253.310.434.181.29410.0%7.5%2.5%801332.66—
2019161663.314.383.582.268.35014.0%9.4%4.6%4135743.57—
2018166673.297.377.561.264.36218.1%10.8%7.3%3825113.08—
2017167679.309.376.586.277.37215.6%9.1%6.5%3735743.44—
31
.393
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
5
85.3
Median EV
1
85.5
90th % EV
15
101.8
Barrel %
31
7.1
Hard-Hit %
9
30.8
Sweet-Spot %
70
38.5
Bat Speed
Avg
34
69.1
Median
35
70.7
90th %
33
75.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
40
31.4
Whiff %
45
21.9
K %
51
19.9
BB %
41
8.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
91
≈ 18th pctl
Chase cost
-6.4r
71 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.5r
46 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.5%
303 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.91
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1311144+33%6+29%7+30%1031+75%8+27%11-30%10-44%18-18%11+67%61+38%13+8%12-27%15-40%25-19%21+33%923+42%12+63%19+10%10+13%8223332211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 303