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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #29 of 61

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Nolan Gorman
Nolan Gorman · #29
V⁻ -72VORP -35V⁺ -20
Nolan Gorman

Nolan Gorman

2B / 3B·STL
Compare
Compare
PA
230
H
39
HR
7
AVG
.193
xwOBA
.281
PPG
0.97
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj84362.219.299.403.183.31430.8%10.1%20.7%1521441.71—
202662230.193
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
4
.281
xBA
2
.196
xSLG
.282
.317
.124
.281
32.2%
10.9%
21.3%
7
0
60
0.97
—
2025110403.205.298.369.164.29933.7%11.7%22.0%1411351.23—
2024110404.202.271.398.196.31037.4%8.4%29.0%1961301.18—
2023123464.236.329.478.242.35431.9%11.4%20.5%2782512.04—
202294314.225.299.419.194.34532.8%8.9%23.9%1411261.34—
11
.347
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
42
89.3
Median EV
33
91.5
90th % EV
21
102.1
Barrel %
51
9.2
Hard-Hit %
53
43.8
Sweet-Spot %
55
36.9
Bat Speed
Avg
62
71.4
Median
48
71.7
90th %
53
76.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
34
31.8
Whiff %
1
37.2
K %
5
32.2
BB %
66
10.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
99
≈ 47th pctl
Chase cost
-6.1r
51 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.9r
40 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.8%
312 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.57
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
134114+29%7+8%12-17%6+0%1543+83%6+35%17-27%15-50%14-47%17+31%13+0%6+56%9+21%14-21%19-16%25-7%1551+13%8+18%115+0%9311111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 312