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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #31 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Nolan McLean
Nolan McLean · #31
V⁻ —VORP 43V⁺ —
Nolan McLean

Nolan McLean

SP·NYM
Compare
Compare
BF
300
K %
27.3%
BB %
9.0%
xwOBA
.289
PTS
150
PPG
11.54
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919102.076003.583.4824.7%9.1%15.6%————20910.99
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
70
94.7
FB Spin
54
2278
Extension
2026
13
13
72.3
3
4
0
0
3.98
3.72
27.3%
9.0%
18.3%
.289
.259
66.4%
45.6%
150
11.54
20258848.051002.062.9330.3%8.5%21.8%.293.27584.1%60.2%14918.63
33
6.34
Results
xwOBA
83
.289
Barrel %
77
6.6
Hard-Hit %
79
35.7
K %
88
27.3
BB %
32
9.0
Chase %
14
26.9
Whiff %
45
21.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
98
≈ 42th pctl
Stuff+
106
if they swing
Command+
88
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
105
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.7%
36 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.004 worse than avg · 112 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.032
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.002 worse than avg · 33 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 370 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
32.3%95.12208+5.3+17.66.3515.9%54.2%35.8%25.5%33.3%0.182
4-Seam FastballFF
19.4%96.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SIFFSTFCCUCH
Usage32%19%16%12%11%10%
MPH95.196.584.791.181.588.0
RHP Avg94.395.083.389.880.286.9
2368
+15.0
+11.0
6.41
13.3%
59.7%
30.6%
24.1%
6.3%
0.400
SweeperST
15.9%84.73135-3.1-21.06.1221.4%40.7%28.8%8.6%16.7%0.320
CutterFC
11.6%91.12613+4.9-1.56.3528.6%60.5%34.9%17.6%28.6%0.353
CurveballCU
11.0%81.53322-15.2-17.56.1740.9%34.1%31.7%37.0%29.7%0.071
ChangeupCH
9.9%88.01327-3.7+11.86.2436.8%40.5%29.7%36.4%23.1%0.211

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″FC · 24″SI · 20″ST · 26″CH · 25″CU · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″FC · 33″SI · 26″ST · 52″CH · 44″CU · 62″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.18′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SIFFSTFCCUCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SIFFSTFCCUCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SIFFSTFCCUCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.