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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #22 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Nolan Schanuel
Nolan Schanuel · #22
V⁻ -8VORP 0V⁺ 28
Nolan Schanuel

Nolan Schanuel

1B·LAA
Compare
Compare
PA
219
H
50
HR
4
AVG
.250
xwOBA
.309
PPG
1.87
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj72312.260.345.378.118.32814.3%10.4%3.9%631632.26—
202653219.250
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

219 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
25
.309
xBA
69
.268
.309
.370
.120
.309
16.4%
6.4%
10.0%
4
0
99
1.87
—
2025136566.263.354.388.125.33012.5%10.4%2.1%1253092.27—
2024149607.250.347.362.112.32417.0%11.2%5.8%13113012.02—
202329133.273.398.327.054.35014.3%15.0%-0.7%10652.24—
xSLG
24
.375
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
18
86.7
Median EV
8
87.9
90th % EV
7
100.3
Barrel %
7
3.0
Hard-Hit %
13
31.9
Sweet-Spot %
67
38.0
Bat Speed
Avg
5
65.9
Median
7
67.3
90th %
13
73.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
50
29.3
Whiff %
79
16.6
K %
76
16.4
BB %
14
6.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
106
≈ 72th pctl
Chase cost
-5.2r
49 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.5r
68 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
37.0%
381 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.28
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
23+0%8+0%9314+38%8+6%16+0%8+43%14+0%64+30%10-13%15-57%23-37%32+6%17+63%84+33%6-25%16-48%23-38%21-15%13+67%633-9%11+0%12+10%104213111411CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 381