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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #14 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez · #14
V⁻ -17VORP 26V⁺ 39
Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez

2B / SS·MIA
Compare
Compare
PA
275
H
85
HR
5
AVG
.331
xwOBA
.336
PPG
2.65
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj93401.276.325.406.130.32615.4%6.4%9.0%8122162.32—
202666275.331
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
50
.336
xBA
88
.289
xSLG
.365
.475
.144
.336
16.0%
3.6%
12.4%
5
11
175
2.65
—
2025146594.246.306.368.122.33213.8%7.4%6.4%15153312.27—
2024116435.270.314.376.106.31817.2%5.7%11.5%6192081.79—
2022810.667.700.667.000.31010.0%10.0%0.0%03121.50—
202131.000.000.000.000.000100.0%0.0%100.0%0062.00—
61
.446
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
49
89.8
Median EV
93
98.1
90th % EV
66
106.4
Barrel %
36
7.4
Hard-Hit %
55
44.0
Sweet-Spot %
24
32.9
Bat Speed
Avg
46
70.2
Median
42
71.3
90th %
60
77.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
12
35.8
Whiff %
67
18.8
K %
77
16.0
BB %
4
3.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
95
≈ 30th pctl
Chase cost
-6.6r
62 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.3r
53 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.1%
325 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.75
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
222312+0%7+9%11-10%10252+50%6-8%12-27%22-29%14-31%1341+69%13+15%20-29%24-18%22-44%1622+20%10+50%12+0%20+8%12+10%102342222CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 325