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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Patrick Bailey

Patrick Bailey

C·CLE
Compare
Compare
PA
353
H
76
HR
7
AVG
.233
xwOBA
.312
PPG
1.24
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202643140.154.209.238.084.27725.0%6.4%18.6%22250.58—
2025133453.222
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

353 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
14
.312
xBA
29
.244
.280
.324
.102
.265
29.4%
6.6%
22.8%
6
1
145
1.09
—
2024125448.234.302.339.105.32222.3%8.7%13.6%841701.36—
202395353.233.286.359.126.31228.3%5.9%22.4%711181.24—
xSLG
34
.421
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
24
88.2
Median EV
32
91.4
90th % EV
19
103.5
Barrel %
59
10.0
Hard-Hit %
25
38.4
Sweet-Spot %
80
38.4
Bat Speed
Avg
20
68.4
Median
27
70.1
90th %
18
74.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
59
26.6
Whiff %
40
23.6
K %
6
28.3
BB %
16
5.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
98
≈ 42th pctl
Chase cost
-23.1r
227 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.7r
221 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.5%
1,411 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.61
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
2+0%6+0%9+15%13+10%10+0%814+42%12+3%34+14%37+25%36+24%21+8%13+38%26+6%51-34%73-27%64-21%42+52%21+0%7+43%14+7%43-34%79-32%62-10%49+55%20+30%10+30%10+24%25+11%28+0%32+10%21+18%113544443CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000