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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Patrick Bailey

Patrick Bailey

C·CLE
Compare
Compare
PA
448
H
94
HR
8
AVG
.234
xwOBA
.322
PPG
1.36
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202643140.154.209.238.084.27725.0%6.4%18.6%22250.58—
2025133453.222
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

448 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
28
.322
xBA
75
.265
.280
.324
.102
.265
29.4%
6.6%
22.8%
6
1
145
1.09
—
2024125448.234.302.339.105.32222.3%8.7%13.6%841701.36—
202395353.233.286.359.126.31228.3%5.9%22.4%711181.24—
xSLG
40
.418
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
63
90.3
Median EV
56
92.8
90th % EV
48
104.8
Barrel %
15
5.5
Hard-Hit %
54
42.7
Sweet-Spot %
74
37.9
Bat Speed
Avg
42
69.8
Median
39
71.0
90th %
28
75.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
69
25.0
Whiff %
56
21.2
K %
40
22.3
BB %
52
8.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
100
≈ 51th pctl
Chase cost
-29.8r
269 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-15.3r
235 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.9%
1,788 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.52
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1+14%7+0%7+11%9+8%12+0%92+27%11+27%30+7%46+25%44+40%25+14%21+0%11+22%23-2%59-35%69-20%81-9%56+63%27+38%13+27%22+4%49-24%50-16%49-11%37+54%13+38%8+20%10+15%20-17%29+5%19+38%13+17%123233322CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000