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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Patrick Bailey

Patrick Bailey

C·CLE
Compare
Compare
PA
453
H
91
HR
6
AVG
.222
xwOBA
.265
PPG
1.09
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202643140.154.209.238.084.27725.0%6.4%18.6%22250.58—
2025133453.222
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

453 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.265
xBA
2
.216
.280
.324
.102
.265
29.4%
6.6%
22.8%
6
1
145
1.09
—
2024125448.234.302.339.105.32222.3%8.7%13.6%841701.36—
202395353.233.286.359.126.31228.3%5.9%22.4%711181.24—
xSLG
2
.341
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
13
87.0
Median EV
13
90.0
90th % EV
20
103.4
Barrel %
13
5.6
Hard-Hit %
17
36.4
Sweet-Spot %
59
36.7
Bat Speed
Avg
40
69.9
Median
38
71.2
90th %
32
75.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
41
28.6
Whiff %
27
26.2
K %
5
29.4
BB %
26
6.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 35th pctl
Chase cost
-30.6r
305 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-15.9r
235 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
49.0%
1,744 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.67
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3+0%10+0%8+11%95+0%82+44%9+22%23+4%23+18%28+21%34+18%17+0%12+40%25+13%55-38%60-21%76-19%64+47%30+33%12+36%25-2%61-31%61-22%69-3%35+71%17+29%7+33%15+62%13+8%26+24%25+13%15+22%932254331CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000