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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #64 of 66

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey · #60
V⁻ -38VORP -260V⁺ -13
Patrick Bailey

Patrick Bailey

C·CLE
Compare
Compare
PA
144
H
22
HR
2
AVG
.165
xwOBA
.281
PPG
0.66
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj53210.217.280.333.117.27825.6%8.0%17.7%41681.29—
202644144.165
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

144 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
4
.281
xBA
10
.219
.224
.248
.083
.281
25.0%
6.9%
18.1%
2
2
29
0.66
—
2025133453.222.280.324.102.26529.4%6.6%22.8%611451.09—
2024125448.234.302.339.105.32222.3%8.7%13.6%841701.36—
202395353.233.286.359.126.31228.3%5.9%22.4%711181.24—
xSLG
16
.364
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
40
89.2
Median EV
39
91.8
90th % EV
6
100.1
Barrel %
33
7.1
Hard-Hit %
26
37.8
Sweet-Spot %
6
29.6
Bat Speed
Avg
65
71.6
Median
47
71.6
90th %
53
76.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
46
29.7
Whiff %
37
24.3
K %
24
25.0
BB %
20
6.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
113
≈ 91th pctl
Chase cost
-2.5r
32 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.3r
24 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.0%
196 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.97
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
12123+17%6+0%7-12%8+30%10+33%623+33%12-28%18-7%15-9%11+67%613+0%13-30%10-33%12+0%651+33%93121211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 196