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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #379 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Paul Blackburn
Paul Blackburn · #60
V⁻ —VORP -59V⁺ —
Paul Blackburn

Paul Blackburn

RP·NYY
Compare
Compare
BF
127
K %
16.5%
BB %
8.7%
xwOBA
.312
PTS
56
PPG
2.80
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj34034.022074.354.2219.1%7.8%11.3%————661.94
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

127 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
37
92.8
FB Spin
46
2257
2026
20
1
30.3
2
1
0
0
2.97
3.76
16.5%
8.7%
7.8%
.312
.304
79.1%
55.3%
56
2.80
202516440.303106.924.6419.4%6.9%12.5%.310.35158.7%43.8%181.13
2024161687.074004.034.1918.6%6.6%12.0%.333.26671.9%45.9%16610.38
20232120103.747004.433.8022.4%9.3%13.1%.327.35073.8%41.5%1386.57
20222423119.377014.534.1819.1%6.4%12.7%.317.29471.9%47.5%1787.42
202110939.314015.955.3414.9%5.7%9.2%.353.35672.2%51.8%131.30
2020112.3010027.003.9614.3%14.3%0.0%.274.5000.0%50.0%-17-17.00
20194111.0020010.646.5514.0%7.0%7.0%.429.39050.5%54.5%-18-4.50
20187731.024008.424.4216.0%5.0%11.0%.307.35346.3%47.8%-2-0.29
2017101058.731003.224.339.2%6.7%2.5%.322.27377.9%56.3%929.20
Extension
22
6.18
Results
xwOBA
63
.312
Barrel %
90
5.3
Hard-Hit %
77
36.2
K %
16
16.5
BB %
36
8.7
Chase %
7
25.4
Whiff %
10
17.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
110
≈ 84th pctl
Stuff+
99
if they swing
Command+
106
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
103
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.5%
11 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.048
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.005 worse than avg · 22 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.021
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.008 better than avg · 11 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 129 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
40.0%91.12458+8.9-4.56.1431.6%52.5%32.5%21.1%42.9%0.207
SinkerSI
35.0%93.82071

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE46°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCSICHCUSTSL
Usage40%35%7%7%6%5%
MPH91.193.886.680.084.184.7
RHP Avg89.894.386.980.283.386.7
+11.1
+14.0
6.20
5.9%
60.0%
17.1%
14.3%
12.5%
0.455
ChangeupCH
7.0%86.61821+4.6+11.76.170.0%42.9%0.0%25.0%—0.281
CurveballCU
7.0%80.02645-17.3-10.46.030.0%42.9%14.3%25.0%—0.000
SweeperST
6.0%84.12686-2.0-14.56.0025.0%50.0%16.7%33.3%0.0%0.163
SliderSL
5.0%84.72611+1.2-6.66.160.0%20.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%0.319

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFC · 21″SI · 21″CH · 22″ST · 25″SL · 27″CU · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FC · 34″SI · 27″CH · 44″ST · 55″SL · 52″CU · 63″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.24′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCSICHCUSTSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCSICHCUSTSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCSICHCUSTSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.