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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #25 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt · #25
V⁻ -16VORP -5V⁺ 25
Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt

1B·NYY
Compare
Compare
PA
151
H
37
HR
8
AVG
.274
xwOBA
.370
PPG
2.71
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj53229.252.319.417.165.32722.1%8.6%13.5%821142.15—
202641151.274
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

151 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
76
.370
xBA
75
.276
.351
.526
.252
.370
19.2%
8.6%
10.6%
8
1
111
2.71
—
2025147534.274.329.403.129.33618.7%6.7%12.0%1052711.84—
2024159656.245.302.413.168.33726.4%7.2%19.2%22112671.68—
2023157688.268.364.446.178.37023.4%12.6%10.8%25113712.36—
2022163651.317.406.578.261.37521.7%12.1%9.6%3585393.31—
2021166679.294.368.514.220.40020.0%9.9%10.1%31124722.84—
202062233.301.416.461.160.39718.5%15.9%2.6%611532.47—
2019175683.259.347.475.216.36224.3%11.4%12.9%3434292.45—
2018165691.290.388.532.242.39225.0%13.0%12.0%3374322.62—
2017165664.297.406.563.266.40722.1%14.2%7.9%36185393.27—
xSLG
83
.503
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
25
87.4
Median EV
33
91.4
90th % EV
52
105.3
Barrel %
72
12.3
Hard-Hit %
45
41.5
Sweet-Spot %
64
37.7
Bat Speed
Avg
42
69.9
Median
56
72.4
90th %
38
75.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
37
31.8
Whiff %
38
23.4
K %
56
19.2
BB %
38
8.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
112
≈ 88th pctl
Chase cost
-1.2r
17 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.6r
24 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.3%
137 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.03
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
111125+14%74234-33%6-38%13+0%9-33%63224-27%11-43%74311354211211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 137