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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #1 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Paul Skenes
Paul Skenes · #1
V⁻ —VORP 170V⁺ —
Paul Skenes

Paul Skenes

SP·PIT
Compare
Compare
BF
279
K %
29.4%
BB %
4.7%
xwOBA
.242
PTS
195
PPG
13.93
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2121114.094002.892.6529.2%6.3%22.9%————30814.65
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
91
97.0
FB Spin
38
2225
Extension
2026
14
14
76.0
6
5
0
0
3.20
2.53
29.4%
4.7%
24.7%
.242
.275
68.5%
44.9%
195
13.93
20253434192.01010001.922.3029.5%5.7%23.8%.256.27082.6%44.6%54115.91
20242424134.0113001.952.4133.0%6.2%26.8%.250.28185.7%52.3%42717.79
79
6.73
Results
xwOBA
98
.242
Barrel %
96
3.9
Hard-Hit %
90
33.1
K %
94
29.4
BB %
96
4.7
Chase %
77
33.0
Whiff %
63
23.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
113
≈ 91th pctl
Stuff+
111
if they swing
Command+
115
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
112
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.6%
27 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.035
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.007 better than avg · 106 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.035
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.006 worse than avg · 30 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 354 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
36.7%97.32311+13.3+13.76.8526.2%56.6%27.4%32.6%26.5%0.293
ChangeupCH
21.1%89.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE25°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSISTFSSLCU
Usage37%21%17%13%5%3%3%
MPH97.389.096.783.494.184.581.8
RHP Avg95.086.994.383.386.786.780.2
1904
+6.6
+17.1
6.77
35.1%
27.9%
24.6%
50.0%
12.1%
0.212
SinkerSI
17.0%96.72272+7.5+18.56.809.5%53.1%34.7%30.4%16.7%0.274
SweeperST
13.1%83.42451+5.1-12.06.7621.4%55.3%31.6%11.8%36.4%0.076
Split-FingerFS
5.2%94.11756+2.0+14.46.860.0%60.0%6.7%0.0%0.0%0.238
SliderSL
3.5%84.52488+8.7-5.26.7650.0%40.0%30.0%0.0%0.0%0.706
CurveballCU
3.5%81.82422-7.9-10.96.6120.0%40.0%10.0%16.7%0.0%0.141

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″ST · 24″SI · 21″SL · 25″CH · 22″FS · 24″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″ST · 51″SI · 22″SL · 48″CH · 41″FS · 29″CU · 57″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.15′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSISTFSSLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSISTFSSLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSISTFSSLCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.