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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #48 of 66

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Pedro Pagés
Pedro Pagés · #48
V⁻ —VORP -299V⁺ —
Pedro Pagés

Pedro Pagés

C·STL
Compare
Compare
PA
132
H
25
HR
4
AVG
.208
xwOBA
.275
PPG
1.08
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj2184.227.281.354.127.28625.2%6.3%18.9%20301.40—
202636132.208
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

132 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
4
.275
xBA
9
.216
.252
.342
.134
.275
23.5%
3.8%
19.7%
4
2
39
1.08
—
2025110389.230.274.363.133.26227.5%4.9%22.6%1111311.19—
202470219.236.282.374.138.28426.5%5.9%20.6%72801.14—
xSLG
15
.360
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
2
84.2
Median EV
53
92.8
90th % EV
47
104.8
Barrel %
27
6.5
Hard-Hit %
25
37.0
Sweet-Spot %
23
32.6
Bat Speed
Avg
43
70.0
Median
56
72.4
90th %
54
77.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
10
37.2
Whiff %
22
26.4
K %
28
23.5
BB %
5
3.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
107
≈ 76th pctl
Chase cost
-3.1r
35 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.7r
20 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
54.4%
171 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.23
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
122112254+67%655-36%11+0%9-11%9224+27%11-10%10-37%164411+67%65-10%10211221CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 171