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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B·SFG
Compare
Compare
PA
657
H
157
HR
33
AVG
.270
xwOBA
.385
PPG
2.81
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202668285.237.293.412.175.29530.9%7.0%23.9%801041.53—
2025165732.251
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
91
.385
xBA
80
.275
xSLG
.372
.477
.226
.374
26.2%
15.3%
10.9%
35
1
428
2.59
—
2024143601.272.358.516.244.37624.5%11.1%13.4%2833772.64—
2023159657.270.352.499.229.38519.2%9.4%9.8%3354462.81—
2022153614.295.360.521.226.37518.6%8.1%10.5%2734522.95—
2021176664.279.355.538.259.39621.5%9.3%12.2%3855192.95—
202058248.263.310.483.220.32827.0%5.2%21.8%1101382.38—
2019161702.311.362.555.244.37117.0%6.8%10.2%3285553.45—
2018135490.240.299.433.193.31124.7%7.8%16.9%2172752.04—
201762240.284.338.482.198.30723.8%7.5%16.3%1031512.44—
93
.541
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
93
93.0
Median EV
94
96.6
90th % EV
90
108.5
Barrel %
82
12.7
Hard-Hit %
96
55.1
Sweet-Spot %
9
31.9
Bat Speed
Avg
76
72.2
Median
69
73.0
90th %
69
78.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
22
32.4
Whiff %
38
24.0
K %
58
19.2
BB %
53
9.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
92
≈ 20th pctl
Chase cost
-62.1r
616 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-11.2r
207 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.5%
2,576 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.84
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
2+25%8+33%9+12%17+29%7+0%65+43%21+44%25+27%45+37%51+29%41+35%26+7%14+43%30+24%34-13%63-22%69-4%55+53%30+7%27+67%24+20%20-24%37-11%47-12%42+33%24+0%6+56%9+30%20+15%13+43%14+35%17+13%855333231CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000