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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B·SFG
Compare
Compare
PA
732
H
153
HR
35
AVG
.251
xwOBA
.374
PPG
2.59
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202668285.237.293.412.175.29530.9%7.0%23.9%801041.53—
2025165732.251
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
89
.374
xBA
37
.246
xSLG
.372
.477
.226
.374
26.2%
15.3%
10.9%
35
1
428
2.59
—
2024143601.272.358.516.244.37624.5%11.1%13.4%2833772.64—
2023159657.270.352.499.229.38519.2%9.4%9.8%3354462.81—
2022153614.295.360.521.226.37518.6%8.1%10.5%2734522.95—
2021176664.279.355.538.259.39621.5%9.3%12.2%3855192.95—
202058248.263.310.483.220.32827.0%5.2%21.8%1101382.38—
2019161702.311.362.555.244.37117.0%6.8%10.2%3285553.45—
2018135490.240.299.433.193.31124.7%7.8%16.9%2172752.04—
201762240.284.338.482.198.30723.8%7.5%16.3%1031512.44—
82
.492
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
95
93.5
Median EV
95
96.9
90th % EV
86
108.2
Barrel %
89
16.0
Hard-Hit %
95
56.1
Sweet-Spot %
38
35.3
Bat Speed
Avg
45
70.2
Median
38
71.2
90th %
41
76.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
61
25.6
Whiff %
11
29.0
K %
17
26.2
BB %
96
15.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
100
≈ 51th pctl
Chase cost
-56.9r
536 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-19.9r
339 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.2%
3,058 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.51
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3+6%16+0%11+0%9+0%8+0%72+45%20+24%25+3%59+11%44+16%25+23%22+0%10+47%30-7%41-36%59-31%70-18%50+27%33+11%18+54%24+11%37-21%43-19%57-9%44+0%24+0%10+11%9+28%18+25%24+67%15+60%15+9%114343241CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000