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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #12 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers · #12
V⁻ 6VORP 1V⁺ 76
Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B·SFG
Compare
Compare
PA
285
H
62
HR
8
AVG
.237
xwOBA
.295
PPG
1.53
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj99427.247.340.448.201.35025.0%11.7%13.2%1812252.27—
202668285.237
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
11
.295
xBA
9
.218
xSLG
.293
.412
.175
.295
30.9%
7.0%
23.9%
8
0
104
1.53
—
2025165732.251.372.477.226.37426.2%15.3%10.9%3514282.59—
2024143601.272.358.516.244.37624.5%11.1%13.4%2833772.64—
2023159657.270.352.499.229.38519.2%9.4%9.8%3354462.81—
2022153614.295.360.521.226.37518.6%8.1%10.5%2734522.95—
2021176664.279.355.538.259.39621.5%9.3%12.2%3855192.95—
202058248.263.310.483.220.32827.0%5.2%21.8%1101382.38—
2019161702.311.362.555.244.37117.0%6.8%10.2%3285553.45—
2018135490.240.299.433.193.31124.7%7.8%16.9%2172752.04—
201762240.284.338.482.198.30723.8%7.5%16.3%1031512.44—
40
.404
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
86
91.9
Median EV
80
95.2
90th % EV
54
105.5
Barrel %
61
10.2
Hard-Hit %
82
50.0
Sweet-Spot %
28
33.5
Bat Speed
Avg
53
70.5
Median
33
70.5
90th %
33
75.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
40
31.4
Whiff %
17
28.6
K %
7
30.9
BB %
19
7.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
102
≈ 59th pctl
Chase cost
-6.2r
77 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.0r
48 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.1%
376 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.44
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
134+14%72213+31%13+15%13-7%14+0%955+17%6-16%19-18%28-21%24+0%15+50%8+0%6+50%8+0%23-35%20-12%24+5%22+30%10+0%95+50%10+63%8+60%102322311CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 376