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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #34 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Randy Arozarena
Randy Arozarena · #34
V⁻ -21VORP 22V⁺ 42
Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena

OF·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
303
H
76
HR
7
AVG
.290
xwOBA
.352
PPG
2.65
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj100432.241.337.408.167.33525.2%10.1%15.1%14172162.16—
202671303.290
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
62
.352
xBA
70
.269
xSLG
.380
.447
.157
.352
21.8%
9.2%
12.6%
7
19
188
2.65
—
2025176712.237.335.424.187.32826.8%9.0%17.8%27373982.26—
2024158650.218.333.387.169.32426.0%11.2%14.8%20202961.87—
2023156655.254.366.424.170.34723.8%12.2%11.6%23223812.44—
2022164646.262.328.445.183.30124.1%7.1%17.0%20323702.26—
2021151604.274.359.459.185.30228.1%9.3%18.8%20223462.29—
20204276.281.387.641.360.36328.9%7.9%21.0%731463.48—
20191723.300.391.500.200.30817.4%8.7%8.7%13160.94—
51
.424
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
82
91.7
Median EV
39
91.8
90th % EV
41
104.3
Barrel %
38
7.6
Hard-Hit %
52
43.4
Sweet-Spot %
82
39.9
Bat Speed
Avg
27
68.7
Median
11
68.2
90th %
31
75.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
33
32.2
Whiff %
35
24.4
K %
42
21.8
BB %
48
9.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
102
≈ 57th pctl
Chase cost
-6.6r
69 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.5r
65 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.9%
412 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.46
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1121+0%64-56%955+25%81+29%7+0%12-38%21-30%20-21%19+22%91+44%9+14%21-43%23-27%33-14%22+30%101+18%17+28%18+4%27+27%15+50%10+67%62+33%9+22%945221CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 412