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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #24 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez · #24
V⁻ —VORP 54V⁺ —
Ranger Suarez

Ranger Suarez

SP·BOS
Compare
Compare
BF
263
K %
24.0%
BB %
7.2%
xwOBA
.300
PTS
133
PPG
11.08
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919105.085003.823.5520.9%7.0%13.8%————20010.53
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
8
90.3
FB Spin
4
2047
Extension
2026
12
12
65.0
2
3
0
0
3.18
2.93
24.0%
7.2%
16.8%
.300
.291
75.3%
37.4%
133
11.08
20252726162.3138003.163.2223.2%5.8%17.4%.278.31679.8%48.0%35513.15
20242828155.0128003.373.2723.1%6.5%16.6%.302.30575.3%53.2%33712.04
20232626143.757003.883.5322.0%8.9%13.1%.322.31475.1%48.8%2439.35
20223634175.7138103.433.8719.4%8.7%10.7%.306.28073.1%56.0%3439.53
20213912106.085401.362.6525.6%7.9%17.7%.256.25786.3%59.7%3278.38
2020304.0010020.259.603.8%15.4%-11.6%.420.47444.1%45.0%-24-8.00
201937048.761073.143.7820.3%5.8%14.5%.309.31983.0%56.7%1293.49
20184315.011005.405.4315.9%8.7%7.2%.354.36757.0%51.9%112.75
17
6.09
Results
xwOBA
77
.300
Barrel %
73
6.7
Hard-Hit %
90
33.0
K %
64
24.0
BB %
67
7.2
Chase %
59
31.7
Whiff %
51
22.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
91
≈ 20th pctl
Stuff+
95
if they swing
Command+
92
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
90
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
12.1%
48 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.059
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.017 worse than avg · 103 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.027
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.002 better than avg · 23 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 397 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
29.9%90.52000+6.0+15.46.1910.6%53.1%23.5%30.4%26.1%0.351
ChangeupCH
23.2%81.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE41°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SICHFCCUFFSL
Usage30%23%20%13%13%1%
MPH90.581.388.075.391.677.0
LHP Avg93.084.688.179.093.284.7
1251
+1.2
+11.5
6.12
29.4%
30.3%
18.4%
28.3%
4.5%
0.259
CutterFC
20.1%88.02119+8.7-1.26.086.1%54.5%19.7%26.7%6.3%0.400
CurveballCU
13.1%75.32166-9.9-11.16.1035.7%25.6%30.2%31.3%31.3%0.110
4-Seam FastballFF
13.1%91.62066+13.4+5.26.185.6%60.5%34.9%29.4%9.1%0.448
SliderSL
0.6%77.02333+0.1-13.76.300.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%0.179

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFC · 20″FF · 21″SI · 21″CH · 23″SL · 26″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FC · 41″FF · 32″SI · 37″CH · 59″SL · 66″CU · 73″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.30′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SICHFCCUFFSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SICHFCCUFFSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SICHFCCUFFSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.