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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #27 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Reid Detmers
Reid Detmers · #27
V⁻ —VORP 50V⁺ —
Reid Detmers

Reid Detmers

SP / RP·LAA
Compare
Compare
BF
309
K %
28.5%
BB %
7.8%
xwOBA
.273
PTS
138
PPG
10.62
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2518103.066003.883.6626.1%8.5%17.7%————2078.28
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
57
94.1
FB Spin
18
2157
Extension
2026
13
13
74.0
2
5
0
0
4.38
2.91
28.5%
7.8%
20.7%
.273
.294
63.3%
37.0%
138
10.62
202562067.3533134.013.0329.9%9.3%20.6%.305.34072.3%45.3%1903.06
2024181892.359006.344.5827.9%9.7%18.2%.316.34964.8%39.7%985.44
20233030155.7510004.574.0526.0%9.3%16.7%.329.32371.0%37.2%2478.23
20222727134.776003.743.6822.6%8.5%14.1%.318.28374.5%36.6%28310.48
20215520.713007.406.2918.8%10.9%7.9%.359.32868.8%34.8%00.00
32
6.33
Results
xwOBA
90
.273
Barrel %
69
6.8
Hard-Hit %
74
36.5
K %
92
28.5
BB %
55
7.8
Chase %
70
32.3
Whiff %
82
26.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
107
≈ 76th pctl
Stuff+
105
if they swing
Command+
100
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
105
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.4%
43 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.001 better than avg · 154 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.008
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.021 better than avg · 26 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 456 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
42.8%94.12152+17.8+9.06.3616.5%52.1%25.7%27.5%8.7%0.350
SliderSL
33.3%86.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE44°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCUCHSIFS
Usage43%33%9%9%4%1%
MPH94.186.072.682.293.682.3
LHP Avg93.284.779.084.693.0—
2451
-4.5
-3.3
6.22
29.7%
45.4%
30.8%
52.1%
21.4%
0.182
CurveballCU
9.2%72.62528-15.2-10.96.0950.0%50.0%44.4%38.9%30.8%0.230
ChangeupCH
9.0%82.21607+12.5+10.96.2642.9%48.6%37.1%38.9%35.7%0.203
SinkerSI
4.4%93.62110+14.0+14.86.310.0%35.3%5.9%27.3%16.7%0.325
Split-FingerFS
1.3%82.31709+16.1+11.56.3250.0%60.0%60.0%50.0%0.0%—

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 17″FS · 18″CH · 20″CU · 24″SL · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″SI · 30″FS · 58″CH · 52″CU · 82″SL · 46″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.51′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCUCHSIFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCUCHSIFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCUCHSIFS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.