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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #142 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Rhett Lowder
Rhett Lowder · #60
V⁻ —VORP -51V⁺ —
Rhett Lowder

Rhett Lowder

SP·CIN
Compare
Compare
BF
182
K %
17.0%
BB %
12.6%
xwOBA
.350
PTS
49
PPG
5.44
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181261.034004.734.4617.4%8.3%9.1%————754.19
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
34
92.7
FB Spin
48
2263
Extension
2026
9
9
41.3
3
3
0
0
5.01
3.97
17.0%
12.6%
4.4%
.350
.280
63.6%
45.7%
49
5.44
20247732.023002.533.5416.9%10.8%6.1%.327.29283.0%39.1%537.57
19
6.12
Results
xwOBA
19
.350
Barrel %
58
7.9
Hard-Hit %
49
40.2
K %
19
17.0
BB %
4
12.6
Chase %
3
24.4
Whiff %
17
18.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
115
≈ 93th pctl
Stuff+
93
if they swing
Command+
115
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
97
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
13.4%
54 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.022
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.021 better than avg · 101 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.017
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.012 better than avg · 39 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 403 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
29.7%92.42280+7.2+17.96.158.5%62.9%33.3%38.5%23.1%0.401
4-Seam FastballFF
26.1%93.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE29°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SIFFSLCH
Usage30%26%24%21%
MPH92.493.185.186.1
RHP Avg94.395.086.786.9
2263
+14.1
+10.3
6.06
12.5%
51.1%
23.9%
20.0%
0.0%
0.437
SliderSL
23.5%85.12768+0.2-3.26.0233.3%38.6%26.5%33.3%22.6%0.201
ChangeupCH
20.7%86.11986+0.2+17.86.1534.5%39.7%28.8%29.5%22.7%0.227

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 20″CH · 22″SL · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 31″SI · 32″CH · 48″SL · 50″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.14′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SIFFSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SIFFSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SIFFSLCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.