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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #31 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Riley Greene
Riley Greene · #31
V⁻ -20VORP 19V⁺ 59
Riley Greene

Riley Greene

OF·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
276
H
73
HR
6
AVG
.304
xwOBA
.364
PPG
2.07
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj98423.262.338.458.196.35127.5%9.8%17.7%1732152.19—
202667276.304
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
72
.364
xBA
62
.266
xSLG
.395
.446
.142
.364
27.5%
12.3%
15.2%
6
1
139
2.07
—
2025170656.258.315.493.235.33630.6%7.0%23.6%3623552.09—
2024150586.261.348.477.216.36026.6%10.9%15.7%2443272.18—
2023105416.288.350.447.159.36827.4%8.4%19.0%1172001.90—
2022102420.251.321.360.109.32328.6%8.6%20.0%511651.62—
70
.466
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
79
91.1
Median EV
78
95.0
90th % EV
66
106.4
Barrel %
72
12.3
Hard-Hit %
83
50.3
Sweet-Spot %
81
39.3
Bat Speed
Avg
88
73.9
Median
89
75.4
90th %
89
80.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
68
26.2
Whiff %
22
27.0
K %
17
27.5
BB %
75
12.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 65th pctl
Chase cost
-6.5r
55 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.9r
60 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.9%
396 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.37
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
14344225+25%8+12%17+14%14-6%18+0%83+50%8+10%10-43%35-27%33-30%20+25%12+17%6+67%15+21%14-29%17-8%25-13%23+33%932+33%6-30%10-33%6+57%7331322CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 396