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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Riley Greene

Riley Greene

OF·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
416
H
109
HR
11
AVG
.288
xwOBA
.368
PPG
1.90
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202667276.304.395.446.142.36427.5%12.3%15.2%611392.07—
2025170656.258
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

416 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
83
.368
xBA
87
.285
.315
.493
.235
.336
30.6%
7.0%
23.6%
36
2
355
2.09
—
2024150586.261.348.477.216.36026.6%10.9%15.7%2443272.18—
2023105416.288.350.447.159.36827.4%8.4%19.0%1172001.90—
2022102420.251.321.360.109.32328.6%8.6%20.0%511651.62—
xSLG
82
.504
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
81
91.6
Median EV
72
93.9
90th % EV
81
107.4
Barrel %
72
11.3
Hard-Hit %
74
47.0
Sweet-Spot %
78
38.3
Bat Speed
Avg
93
74.3
Median
88
74.9
90th %
93
80.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
61
26.5
Whiff %
27
25.8
K %
14
27.4
BB %
43
8.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
100
≈ 49th pctl
Chase cost
-32.1r
301 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.5r
231 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.9%
1,795 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.54
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
+0%72+12%17+0%12432+22%9+30%27+20%41+11%38+8%25+9%23+0%8+50%32+8%48-32%68-40%70-15%46+32%22+13%8+29%17+6%47-20%49-26%50-17%47+28%36+14%14+23%13+33%12+15%27+18%22+13%16+14%75554+0%11+17%61CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000