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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Riley Greene

Riley Greene

OF·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
586
H
134
HR
24
AVG
.261
xwOBA
.360
PPG
2.18
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202670294.296.390.455.159.36227.9%12.6%15.3%811422.03—
2025170656.258
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
82
.360
xBA
42
.246
xSLG
.315
.493
.235
.336
30.6%
7.0%
23.6%
36
2
355
2.09
—
2024150586.261.348.477.216.36026.6%10.9%15.7%2443272.18—
2023105416.288.350.447.159.36827.4%8.4%19.0%1172001.90—
2022102420.251.321.360.109.32328.6%8.6%20.0%511651.62—
81
.482
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
77
91.3
Median EV
78
94.2
90th % EV
73
106.8
Barrel %
86
13.4
Hard-Hit %
73
46.9
Sweet-Spot %
84
39.7
Bat Speed
Avg
90
73.5
Median
81
74.1
90th %
82
79.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
85
23.1
Whiff %
34
24.9
K %
15
26.6
BB %
78
10.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
98
≈ 42th pctl
Chase cost
-42.8r
356 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-21.4r
340 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.4%
2,477 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.59
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+13%84+7%15+0%18+8%13+0%91+18%11+28%36+18%38+19%36+0%36+12%26+0%8+30%20+5%44-30%63-28%76-22%49+26%27+40%10+39%23+6%33-30%56-23%48-7%43+53%19+43%7+29%14+23%13+29%24+30%23+19%21+14%74144353CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000