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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Riley Greene

Riley Greene

OF·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
656
H
155
HR
36
AVG
.258
xwOBA
.336
PPG
2.09
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202667276.304.395.446.142.36427.5%12.3%15.2%611392.07—
2025170656.258
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
53
.336
xBA
20
.237
xSLG
.315
.493
.235
.336
30.6%
7.0%
23.6%
36
2
355
2.09
—
2024150586.261.348.477.216.36026.6%10.9%15.7%2443272.18—
2023105416.288.350.447.159.36827.4%8.4%19.0%1172001.90—
2022102420.251.321.360.109.32328.6%8.6%20.0%511651.62—
82
.491
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
40
89.9
Median EV
34
92.3
90th % EV
82
107.8
Barrel %
92
17.1
Hard-Hit %
53
45.5
Sweet-Spot %
69
37.9
Bat Speed
Avg
93
74.2
Median
92
75.3
90th %
91
80.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
26
31.3
Whiff %
17
27.8
K %
3
30.6
BB %
28
7.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 33th pctl
Chase cost
-57.3r
523 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-16.7r
301 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.6%
2,757 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.68
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
4+0%8+27%11+0%11+17%645+27%11+40%25+7%29+12%41+32%25+36%11-8%12+48%27+18%50-29%56-16%57-27%62+42%26+32%19+67%21+20%41-12%64-4%55-16%43+29%28+25%12+25%8+7%14-9%22+33%36+24%25+20%153234+14%71CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000