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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #170 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Rob Refsnyder
Rob Refsnyder · #60
V⁻ —VORP -7V⁺ —
Rob Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder

OF·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
94
H
11
HR
3
AVG
.133
xwOBA
.256
PPG
0.41
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj26111.229.316.382.153.31527.2%10.0%17.2%31461.76—
20264194.133
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

94 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.256
xBA
0
.166
.209
.241
.108
.256
29.8%
6.4%
23.4%
3
0
17
0.41
—
202577211.266.354.478.212.34125.6%11.4%14.2%941341.74—
202491308.282.359.469.187.33225.3%9.1%16.2%1121571.73—
202389244.246.365.315.069.34419.3%13.5%5.8%171301.46—
202267177.307.391.497.190.37926.0%8.5%17.5%611071.60—
202151157.245.327.338.093.34325.5%10.8%14.7%21561.10—
20201634.200.273.233.033.26032.4%5.9%26.5%0050.31—
201838102.167.314.274.107.32625.5%17.6%7.9%20310.82—
20175298.170.247.216.046.29217.3%8.2%9.1%04330.63—
201661174.250.333.309.059.30817.2%10.3%6.9%02751.23—
xSLG
3
.308
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
19
86.8
Median EV
4
86.6
90th % EV
11
101.0
Barrel %
47
8.6
Hard-Hit %
17
34.5
Sweet-Spot %
3
27.6
Bat Speed
Avg
40
69.6
Median
58
72.6
90th %
54
77.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
84
23.0
Whiff %
38
23.3
K %
10
29.8
BB %
14
6.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
114
≈ 92th pctl
Chase cost
-1.3r
18 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.3r
23 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
39.1%
133 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.94
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
114-29%74534-22%9-25%845123-12%8-60%10-57%72112+17%65+0%61232CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 133